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Prediction vindicated as Tianjin Teda edge out Sichuan Jiuniu 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tianjin Teda beat Sichuan Jiuniu 1-0 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 2.31 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.62 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Tianjin Teda fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.96 / defence 0.67 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.67 / defence 1.31, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 75% | Draw 18% | Sichuan Jiuniu 7%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 75%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 59%, Sichuan Jiuniu 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tianjin Teda's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Tianjin Teda arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.91. That form edge translated into the three points. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights