Tianjin Teda 1-0 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 75% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Sichuan Jiuniu travel to Olympic Sports Center Stadium to take on Tianjin Teda. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 September 2025, 12:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tianjin Teda stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 6W 2D 2L at Olympic Sports Center Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Olympic Sports Center Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Tianjin Teda are significantly better at Olympic Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Sichuan Jiuniu — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sichuan Jiuniu's away record: 0W 1D 9L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Tianjin Teda have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Tianjin Teda, 1 for Sichuan Jiuniu and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2025, ended 0–1 with Sichuan Jiuniu winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Tianjin Teda trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Sichuan Jiuniu trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 57% versus Sichuan Jiuniu 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 59% | Sichuan Jiuniu 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 2.31 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.964 / defence 0.673 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.674 / defence 1.309. League average goals — home 1.835 / away 1.357. Sichuan Jiuniu bring a strong defensive rating of 1.309 — this is suppressing Tianjin Teda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Tianjin Teda's defence rating of 0.673 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 Tianjin Teda games / 54 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 75% | Draw 18% | Sichuan Jiuniu 7%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 1.33 | Draw 5.56 | Sichuan Jiuniu 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Tianjin Teda (75%) — a 68pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 30% | Sichuan Jiuniu 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Sep 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 75% | Draw 18% | Sichuan Jiuniu 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 42% | xG Tianjin Teda 2.31 / Sichuan Jiuniu 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.964 / def 0.673 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.674 / def 1.309 | league avg home 1.835 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
42%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 21 September 2025 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Tianjin Teda 1 - 0 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 75% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 7% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Sichuan Jiuniu will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Record (3 meetings): Tianjin Teda 2W | Draws 0 | Sichuan Jiuniu 1W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Sichuan Jiuniu in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Tianjin Teda's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Sichuan Jiuniu's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.31. The same calculation in reverse, Sichuan Jiuniu's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 0.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 3-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
75%
1.34
18%
5.60
7%
13.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
3 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.93
0.62
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
1.34
75%
Home win
5.60
18%
Draw
13.66
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
54%
1.85
10%
10.12
Win to Nil
40%
2.47
1%
138.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 7.6 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.3 | 8.8 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.0 | 6.8 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 0.62 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, Tianjin Teda have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 22W 13D 19L record — D-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sichuan Jiuniu's form line: 13W 10D 31L from 54 games, 0.91 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Sichuan Jiuniu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Tianjin Teda are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sichuan Jiuniu.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Tianjin Teda have posted 1.81 PPG from 26 outings (13W 8D 5L).
On the road, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 4W 5D 17L from 26 away games — 0.65 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tianjin Teda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Sichuan Jiuniu are on 1.07 scored and 1.98 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Sichuan Jiuniu
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Sichuan Jiuniu in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 22W 13D 19L in their last 54 games (1.46 PPG), while Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 13W 10D 31L in their last 54 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Sichuan Jiuniu away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.81 PPG; Sichuan Jiuniu away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Tianjin Teda and Sichuan Jiuniu runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Mar 2024, when Tianjin Teda won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting Sichuan Jiuniu specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Tianjin Teda
0
Draws
2
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Sichuan Jiuniu?
From 6 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 4, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Tianjin Teda 3-0 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 42%, Sichuan Jiuniu 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Tianjin Teda) and 62% (Sichuan Jiuniu).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Sichuan Jiuniu in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Sichuan Jiuniu?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 50% of Sichuan Jiuniu's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 62% of Sichuan Jiuniu's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Sichuan Jiuniu tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Sichuan Jiuniu in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Tianjin Teda edge out Sichuan Jiuniu 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Sichuan Jiuniu 1-0 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 2.31 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.62 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Tianjin Teda fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.96 / defence 0.67 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.67 / defence 1.31, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 75% | Draw 18% | Sichuan Jiuniu 7%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 75%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 59%, Sichuan Jiuniu 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Tianjin Teda arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.91. That form edge translated into the three points. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.