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Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 75% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Sichuan Jiuniu travel to Olympic Sports Center Stadium to take on Tianjin Teda. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 September 2025, 12:35 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Tianjin Teda stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 6W 2D 2L at Olympic Sports Center Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Olympic Sports Center Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Tianjin Teda are significantly better at Olympic Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Sichuan Jiuniu — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sichuan Jiuniu's away record: 0W 1D 9L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On current form, Tianjin Teda have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Tianjin Teda, 1 for Sichuan Jiuniu and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2025, ended 0–1 with Sichuan Jiuniu winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Tianjin Teda trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Sichuan Jiuniu trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 57% versus Sichuan Jiuniu 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 59% | Sichuan Jiuniu 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 2.31 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.964 / defence 0.673 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.674 / defence 1.309. League average goals — home 1.835 / away 1.357. Sichuan Jiuniu bring a strong defensive rating of 1.309 — this is suppressing Tianjin Teda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Tianjin Teda's defence rating of 0.673 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 Tianjin Teda games / 54 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 75% | Draw 18% | Sichuan Jiuniu 7%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 1.33 | Draw 5.56 | Sichuan Jiuniu 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Tianjin Teda (75%) — a 68pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 30% | Sichuan Jiuniu 40% BTTS from recent games.

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