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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant SHANGHAI SIPG run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Tianjin Teda.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SHANGHAI SIPG beat Tianjin Teda 1-4 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.80 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.59 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG outscored their 1.59 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.95 / defence 0.92 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.15 / defence 1.10, drawn from 36/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 41% | Draw 26% | SHANGHAI SIPG 33%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual SHANGHAI SIPG win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 50%, SHANGHAI SIPG 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tianjin Teda's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.33 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights