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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shanghai Shenhua cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Tianjin Teda.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shanghai Shenhua beat Tianjin Teda 1-3 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.33 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.12 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Shanghai Shenhua outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.94 / defence 0.73 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.07 / defence 0.80, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 42% | Draw 27% | Shanghai Shenhua 31%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Shanghai Shenhua win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 58%, Shanghai Shenhua 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tianjin Teda's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 2.34 PPG against 1.46. That form edge translated into the three points. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights