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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Tianjin Teda defy the odds to beat Shandong Luneng 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tianjin Teda beat Shandong Luneng 1-0 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.80 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.87 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Tianjin Teda fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Shandong Luneng landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.85 / defence 1.01 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.35 / defence 1.26, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 37% | Draw 23% | Shandong Luneng 40%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Tianjin Teda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 50%, Shandong Luneng 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tianjin Teda's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Shandong Luneng's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.50 PPG, Shandong Luneng 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights