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Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Shandong Luneng travel to Olympic Sports Center Stadium to take on Tianjin Teda. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 June 2025, 13:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Super League games this season, Tianjin Teda have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 7W 2D 1L at Olympic Sports Center Stadium — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Shandong Luneng — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Shandong Luneng's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Tianjin Teda) versus 1.40 (Shandong Luneng). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Shandong Luneng, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Tianjin Teda.

The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2024, ended 1–4 with Shandong Luneng winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Shandong Luneng have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Data

Tianjin Teda trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).

Shandong Luneng trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 62% versus Shandong Luneng 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 50% | Shandong Luneng 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.80 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.848 / defence 1.011 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.351 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.370. Shandong Luneng bring a strong defensive rating of 1.259 — this is suppressing Tianjin Teda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Shandong Luneng have an above-average attack strength of 1.351 — the away xG of 1.87 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 Tianjin Teda games / 43 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 37% | Draw 23% | Shandong Luneng 40%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.70 | Draw 4.35 | Shandong Luneng 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

Shandong Luneng lead the H2H ledger, but Tianjin Teda carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

On the Poisson output, Shandong Luneng are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.67 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates are neutral: Tianjin Teda 50% | Shandong Luneng 50%.

The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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