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Stalemate at Tianjin Teda's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 20, as Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Youth Island drew 0-0 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.50 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.01 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Tianjin Teda fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Qingdao Youth Island landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.88 / defence 0.86 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.86 / defence 0.95, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 48% | Draw 27% | Qingdao Youth Island 25%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 63%, Qingdao Youth Island 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tianjin Teda's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.45 PPG, Qingdao Youth Island 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights