Tianjin Teda 0-0 Qingdao Youth Island – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Youth Island meet at Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 August 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Tianjin Teda have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 6W 2D 2L at Olympic Sports Center Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Qingdao Youth Island's overall Super League record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Youth Island, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Qingdao Youth Island have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Tianjin Teda's favour (1.60 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Tianjin Teda 2W, Qingdao Youth Island 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Tianjin Teda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Qingdao Youth Island goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Tianjin Teda 61% and Qingdao Youth Island 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 63% | Qingdao Youth Island 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.50 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.883 / defence 0.862 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.859 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.785 / away 1.361. Data: 49 Tianjin Teda games / 49 Qingdao Youth Island games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 48% | Draw 27% | Qingdao Youth Island 25%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Qingdao Youth Island 4.00. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Tianjin Teda 50% | Qingdao Youth Island 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Aug 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 48% | Draw 27% | Qingdao Youth Island 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.50 / Qingdao Youth Island 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.883 / def 0.862 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.859 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.785 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Qingdao Youth Island xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 10 August 2025 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Tianjin Teda 0 - 0 Qingdao Youth Island.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island being played?
The match is being played at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 48% chance of winning, Qingdao Youth Island a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Youth Island will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Youth Island?
Record (3 meetings): Tianjin Teda 2W | Draws 1 | Qingdao Youth Island 0W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Youth Island in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Tianjin Teda's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Qingdao Youth Island's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Qingdao Youth Island's attack (0.86x) against Tianjin Teda's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
48%
2.08
27%
3.71
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.51
1.01
Qingdao Youth Island xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
6%
18.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Youth Island expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.01 for Qingdao Youth Island, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Tianjin Teda's recent record stands at 20W 11D 18L from 49 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Qingdao Youth Island, meanwhile, have gone 14W 16D 19L across 49 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-W-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Qingdao Youth Island is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Tianjin Teda against 1.18 for Qingdao Youth Island. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Tianjin Teda have managed 11W 7D 5L from 23 games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Qingdao Youth Island's away record stands at 6W 5D 12L across 23 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tianjin Teda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Youth Island are on 1.37 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tianjin Teda have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Qingdao Youth Island in 61%.
Last 49 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Qingdao Youth Island
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Youth Island in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 20W 11D 18L in their last 49 games (1.45 PPG), while Qingdao Youth Island have gone 14W 16D 19L in their last 49 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Qingdao Youth Island away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.74 PPG; Qingdao Youth Island away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tianjin Teda have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Qingdao Youth Island — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Tianjin Teda
4
Draws
0
Qingdao Youth Island
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Youth Island?
From 6 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 2, Qingdao Youth Island have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Youth Island last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Tianjin Teda 1-1 Qingdao Youth Island.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Youth Island?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 48%, Qingdao Youth Island 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Tianjin Teda) and 70% (Qingdao Youth Island). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Qingdao Youth Island in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Qingdao Youth Island away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Qingdao Youth Island?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Tianjin Teda's games and 65% of Qingdao Youth Island's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Tianjin Teda's matches and 70% of Qingdao Youth Island's.
Do Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Youth Island tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Qingdao Youth Island in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Tianjin Teda's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 20, as Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Youth Island drew 0-0 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.50 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.01 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Tianjin Teda fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Qingdao Youth Island landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.88 / defence 0.86 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.86 / defence 0.95, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 48% | Draw 27% | Qingdao Youth Island 25%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 63%, Qingdao Youth Island 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.45 PPG, Qingdao Youth Island 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.