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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Tianjin Teda edge out Qingdao Jonoon 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tianjin Teda beat Qingdao Jonoon 1-0 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.89 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.34 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Tianjin Teda fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Qingdao Jonoon landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 1.01 / defence 1.01 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.90 / defence 1.10, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 50% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Jonoon 27%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 50%, Qingdao Jonoon 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tianjin Teda's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Tianjin Teda arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights