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Poisson model favours Tianjin Teda (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Tianjin Teda face Qingdao Jonoon.

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Analysis

Qingdao Jonoon make the trip to Olympic Sports Center Stadium to face Tianjin Teda in Super League, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Saturday 29 March 2025 at 07:30 UTC.

Form

Tianjin Teda (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Tianjin Teda's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Olympic Sports Center Stadium this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Qingdao Jonoon's overall Super League record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

When travelling in Super League this season, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form favours the hosts. Tianjin Teda's 1.80 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Qingdao Jonoon's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Tianjin Teda lead 3W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2024, ended 1–0 with Tianjin Teda winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Tianjin Teda half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).

Qingdao Jonoon half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 47% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 62% versus Qingdao Jonoon 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 50% | Qingdao Jonoon 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.89 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 1.014 / defence 1.011 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.903 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.469. Data: 32 Tianjin Teda games / 32 Qingdao Jonoon games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 50% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Jonoon 27%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Qingdao Jonoon 3.70. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Tianjin Teda 50% | Qingdao Jonoon 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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