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Prediction vindicated as Tianjin Teda edge out Henan Jianye 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tianjin Teda beat Henan Jianye 1-0 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.70 xG and Henan Jianye 0.97 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Henan Jianye landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.87 / defence 0.62 against Henan Jianye attack 1.13 / defence 1.03, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 53% | Draw 27% | Henan Jianye 20%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 58%, Henan Jianye 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tianjin Teda's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Henan Jianye's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.49 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights