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Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye encounter.

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Match Analysis

Tianjin Teda host Henan Jianye at Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 September 2025 at 12:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Tianjin Teda — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Tianjin Teda's home record at Olympic Sports Center Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Olympic Sports Center Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Henan Jianye stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Super League this season, Henan Jianye have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Tianjin Teda 1.80 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

Tianjin Teda hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 8 previous encounters compared to 1 for Henan Jianye, with 2 draws in between.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2025, ended 4–3 with Tianjin Teda winning.

The historical record gives Tianjin Teda a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Tianjin Teda in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

Henan Jianye in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Tianjin Teda 56% and Henan Jianye 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 58% | Henan Jianye 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.70 xG and Henan Jianye 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.872 / defence 0.622 | Henan Jianye attack 1.128 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.892 / away 1.386. Tianjin Teda's defence rating of 0.622 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Tianjin Teda games / 55 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 53% | Draw 27% | Henan Jianye 20%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Henan Jianye 5.00. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Tianjin Teda 30% | Henan Jianye 70%.

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