Tianjin Teda 1-0 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda host Henan Jianye at Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 September 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Tianjin Teda — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tianjin Teda's home record at Olympic Sports Center Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Olympic Sports Center Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Henan Jianye stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Henan Jianye have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Tianjin Teda 1.80 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Tianjin Teda hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 8 previous encounters compared to 1 for Henan Jianye, with 2 draws in between.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2025, ended 4–3 with Tianjin Teda winning.
The historical record gives Tianjin Teda a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Tianjin Teda in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Henan Jianye in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Tianjin Teda 56% and Henan Jianye 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 58% | Henan Jianye 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.70 xG and Henan Jianye 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.872 / defence 0.622 | Henan Jianye attack 1.128 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.892 / away 1.386. Tianjin Teda's defence rating of 0.622 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Tianjin Teda games / 55 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 53% | Draw 27% | Henan Jianye 20%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Henan Jianye 5.00. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Tianjin Teda 30% | Henan Jianye 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Sep 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 53% | Draw 27% | Henan Jianye 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.70 / Henan Jianye 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.872 / def 0.622 | Henan Jianye attack 1.128 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.892 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Henan Jianye xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 28 September 2025 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye?
Tianjin Teda 1 - 0 Henan Jianye.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 53% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye?
Record (8 meetings): Tianjin Teda 5W | Draws 2 | Henan Jianye 1W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Tianjin Teda's attack rating (0.87) and Henan Jianye's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Henan Jianye's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
53%
1.89
27%
3.73
20%
4.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.67
0.97
Henan Jianye xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
4.95
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
18%
5.46
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
4%
27.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.4 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 0.97 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Tianjin Teda's recent record stands at 23W 13D 19L from 55 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Henan Jianye, meanwhile, have gone 17W 14D 24L across 55 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tianjin Teda on 1.49 PPG, Henan Jianye on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Tianjin Teda have managed 14W 8D 5L from 27 games — 1.85 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Henan Jianye's away record stands at 6W 8D 13L across 27 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tianjin Teda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.44 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Henan Jianye in 64%.
Last 55 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 23W 13D 19L in their last 55 games (1.49 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 17W 14D 24L in their last 55 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Henan Jianye away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.85 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 19 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting Henan Jianye specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Tianjin Teda
2
Draws
2
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye?
From 10 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 6, Henan Jianye have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2026, when Tianjin Teda 1-2 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 41%, Henan Jianye 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Tianjin Teda) and 56% (Henan Jianye).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Henan Jianye in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Henan Jianye?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 63% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 56% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Tianjin Teda edge out Henan Jianye 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Henan Jianye 1-0 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.70 xG and Henan Jianye 0.97 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Henan Jianye landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.87 / defence 0.62 against Henan Jianye attack 1.13 / defence 1.03, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 53% | Draw 27% | Henan Jianye 20%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 58%, Henan Jianye 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.49 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.