Tianjin Teda 3-2 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Hangzhou Greentown travel to TEDA Football Stadium to take on Tianjin Teda. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 August 2024, 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Tianjin Teda — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at TEDA Football Stadium, Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hangzhou Greentown stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Super League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Tianjin Teda at 0.90 PPG versus Hangzhou Greentown's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Tianjin Teda have won 1, Hangzhou Greentown 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2024, ended 2–3 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Tianjin Teda in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Hangzhou Greentown in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Tianjin Teda 64% and Hangzhou Greentown 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 48% | Hangzhou Greentown 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.90 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.803 / defence 0.954 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.870 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 1.844 / away 1.319. Hangzhou Greentown bring a strong defensive rating of 1.284 — this is suppressing Tianjin Teda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Tianjin Teda games / 52 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 56% | Draw 23% | Hangzhou Greentown 21%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Hangzhou Greentown 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Tianjin Teda (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Tianjin Teda 50% | Hangzhou Greentown 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: TEDA Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Aug 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 56% | Draw 23% | Hangzhou Greentown 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.90 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.803 / def 0.954 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.870 / def 1.284 | league avg home 1.844 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Hangzhou Greentown xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 11 August 2024 at TEDA Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Tianjin Teda 3 - 2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at TEDA Football Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 56% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (4 meetings): Tianjin Teda 1W | Draws 0 | Hangzhou Greentown 3W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Tianjin Teda's attack rating (0.80) and Hangzhou Greentown's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hangzhou Greentown's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
56%
1.79
23%
4.39
21%
4.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
3.00
1.09
Hangzhou Greentown xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
4.69
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
15%
6.69
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
3%
31.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.4 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.09 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 52 outings, Tianjin Teda have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 18W 21D 13L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hangzhou Greentown's form line: 26W 8D 18L from 52 games, 1.65 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tianjin Teda on 1.44 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Tianjin Teda have posted 1.44 PPG from 25 outings (7W 15D 3L).
On the road, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 9W 5D 11L from 25 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.85 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tianjin Teda have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Hangzhou Greentown in 63%.
Last 52 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 18W 21D 13L in their last 52 games (1.44 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 26W 8D 18L in their last 52 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.44 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting Hangzhou Greentown specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Tianjin Teda
1
Draws
4
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 9 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 4, Hangzhou Greentown have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Tianjin Teda 2-1 Hangzhou Greentown.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 60%, Hangzhou Greentown 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 44% for Tianjin Teda and 80% for Hangzhou Greentown. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Tianjin Teda have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Tianjin Teda's games and 68% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Tianjin Teda's matches and 80% of Hangzhou Greentown's.
Do Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Tianjin Teda edge out Hangzhou Greentown 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Hangzhou Greentown 3-2 at TEDA Football Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.90 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.09 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Tianjin Teda beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hangzhou Greentown outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.80 / defence 0.95 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.87 / defence 1.28, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 56% | Draw 23% | Hangzhou Greentown 21%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 48%, Hangzhou Greentown 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.44 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.