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Prediction vindicated as Tianjin Teda edge out Dalian Zhixing 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tianjin Teda beat Dalian Zhixing 1-0 at TEDA Football Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League. It was 1-0 at the break, the second half adding nothing to the tally. Scorers: A. Cordoba (10'). With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.57 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.41 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dalian Zhixing landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.82 / defence 1.19 against Dalian Zhixing attack 0.88 / defence 1.17, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 41% | Draw 24% | Dalian Zhixing 34%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 53%, Dalian Zhixing 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tianjin Teda's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 87% of games, and here they did; BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Dalian Zhixing's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 83% of games, and here they did not; BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.47 PPG, Dalian Zhixing 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Dalian Zhixing (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.

In-Play Signals

Dalian Zhixing controlled the ball (67%). The model had leaned the other way, toward Tianjin Teda; and Tianjin Teda justified the model by winning without the ball. Dalian Zhixing shot more often (17 to 7, 5 on target). The scoring opened before half-time (1-0 at the interval).

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights

⚡ Key Moments

📊 Statistics