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Shock result as Tianjin Teda defy the odds to beat Chengdu Better City 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tianjin Teda beat Chengdu Better City 2-1 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.22 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.50 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.85 / defence 0.89 against Chengdu Better City attack 1.28 / defence 0.86, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 31% | Draw 25% | Chengdu Better City 44%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Tianjin Teda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 63%, Chengdu Better City 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tianjin Teda's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Chengdu Better City's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.46. Form was overturned, with Tianjin Teda winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights