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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai finished level at 2-2 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.46 xG and Changchun Yatai 0.55 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Changchun Yatai outscored their 0.55 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.88 / defence 0.59 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.67 / defence 0.91, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 58% | Draw 29% | Changchun Yatai 13%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 58%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 56%, Changchun Yatai 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tianjin Teda's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Changchun Yatai's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Tianjin Teda arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights