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Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai encounter.

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Match Analysis

Tianjin Teda host Changchun Yatai at Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 October 2025 at 08:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Tianjin Teda — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Tianjin Teda's home record at Olympic Sports Center Stadium: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Super League appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Olympic Sports Center Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Tianjin Teda are significantly better at Olympic Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Across all Super League games this season, Changchun Yatai have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Super League this season, Changchun Yatai have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On current form, Tianjin Teda have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Tianjin Teda have won 3, Changchun Yatai 1, with 5 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2025, ended 2–1 with Tianjin Teda winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Tianjin Teda in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).

Changchun Yatai in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 54% versus Changchun Yatai 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 56% | Changchun Yatai 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.46 xG and Changchun Yatai 0.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.881 / defence 0.590 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.669 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.818 / away 1.395. Tianjin Teda's defence rating of 0.590 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Tianjin Teda games / 57 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 58% | Draw 29% | Changchun Yatai 13%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 1.72 | Draw 3.45 | Changchun Yatai 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Tianjin Teda (58%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Changchun Yatai's lower xG of 0.55 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 20% | Changchun Yatai 60% BTTS from recent games.

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