🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 4, as Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan drew 2-2 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.40 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.44 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.94 / defence 0.88 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.12 / defence 0.89, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 35% | Draw 29% | Beijing Guoan 36%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 50%, Beijing Guoan 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tianjin Teda's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Beijing Guoan's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.50 PPG, Beijing Guoan 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights