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Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Beijing Guoan travel to Olympic Sports Center Stadium to take on Tianjin Teda. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 2 April 2025, 12:35 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Tianjin Teda stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Tianjin Teda's home record at Olympic Sports Center Stadium: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Beijing Guoan — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Beijing Guoan's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Tianjin Teda 1.80 PPG, Beijing Guoan 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Beijing Guoan have the better historical record — 4 wins from 7 previous contests against 1 for Tianjin Teda.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Jul 2024, ended 0–2 with Beijing Guoan winning.

It is worth noting that Beijing Guoan have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Data

Tianjin Teda trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).

Beijing Guoan trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Tianjin Teda 62% and Beijing Guoan 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 50% | Beijing Guoan 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.40 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.936 / defence 0.876 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.120 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.467. Data: 33 Tianjin Teda games / 33 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 35% | Draw 29% | Beijing Guoan 36%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Beijing Guoan 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Beijing Guoan at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 50% | Beijing Guoan 80% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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