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Shock result as Sichuan Jiuniu defy the odds to beat Tianjin Teda 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sichuan Jiuniu beat Tianjin Teda 1-0 at Longquanyi Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 1.75 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.85 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Tianjin Teda landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.02 / defence 1.36 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.94 / defence 0.99, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 36% | Draw 25% | Tianjin Teda 39%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Sichuan Jiuniu win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sichuan Jiuniu 57%, Tianjin Teda 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Tianjin Teda's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Tianjin Teda arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Sichuan Jiuniu winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights