🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Sichuan Jiuniu host Tianjin Teda at Longquanyi Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 1 May 2025 at 11:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Sichuan Jiuniu — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

In front of their own supporters this season, Sichuan Jiuniu have posted 4W 2D 4L at Longquanyi Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Sichuan Jiuniu are significantly better at Longquanyi Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Tianjin Teda stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form points away from home here. Tianjin Teda's 1.80 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Sichuan Jiuniu's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sichuan Jiuniu, 2 for Tianjin Teda and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Jun 2024, ended 0–3 with Tianjin Teda winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Sichuan Jiuniu trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.

Tianjin Teda trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sichuan Jiuniu 53% versus Tianjin Teda 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sichuan Jiuniu 57% | Tianjin Teda 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.75 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.019 / defence 1.358 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.942 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.732 / away 1.443. Data: 39 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 39 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 36% | Draw 25% | Tianjin Teda 39%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Tianjin Teda 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Tianjin Teda are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.60 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sichuan Jiuniu 50% | Tianjin Teda 80% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights