Sichuan Jiuniu 1-0 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sichuan Jiuniu host Tianjin Teda at Longquanyi Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 1 May 2025 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Sichuan Jiuniu — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sichuan Jiuniu have posted 4W 2D 4L at Longquanyi Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Sichuan Jiuniu are significantly better at Longquanyi Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tianjin Teda stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Tianjin Teda's 1.80 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Sichuan Jiuniu's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sichuan Jiuniu, 2 for Tianjin Teda and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Jun 2024, ended 0–3 with Tianjin Teda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sichuan Jiuniu trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Tianjin Teda trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sichuan Jiuniu 53% versus Tianjin Teda 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sichuan Jiuniu 57% | Tianjin Teda 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.75 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.019 / defence 1.358 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.942 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.732 / away 1.443. Data: 39 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 39 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 36% | Draw 25% | Tianjin Teda 39%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Tianjin Teda 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tianjin Teda are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.60 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sichuan Jiuniu 50% | Tianjin Teda 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Longquanyi Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 1 May 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 36% | Draw 25% | Tianjin Teda 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 71% | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 1.75 / Tianjin Teda 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.019 / def 1.358 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.942 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.732 / away 1.443 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Tianjin Teda xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 11:30 on Thursday 1 May 2025 at Longquanyi Stadium.
What was the final score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda?
Sichuan Jiuniu 1 - 0 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Longquanyi Stadium.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 36% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Tianjin Teda?
Record (2 meetings): Sichuan Jiuniu 0W | Draws 0 | Tianjin Teda 2W.
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Tianjin Teda in?
Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sichuan Jiuniu's attack at 1.02x the league average against Tianjin Teda's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Sichuan Jiuniu's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.2%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
36%
2.80
25%
4.03
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Total xG
3.60
1.85
Tianjin Teda xG
2.80
36%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.46
Clean Sheet
16%
6.33
17%
5.76
Win to Nil
6%
17.76
7%
14.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 8.9 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Sichuan Jiuniu and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 1.85 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sichuan Jiuniu's recent record stands at 7W 8D 15L from 30 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-W in the last five.
Tianjin Teda, meanwhile, have gone 12W 6D 12L across 30 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Tianjin Teda by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sichuan Jiuniu heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sichuan Jiuniu have managed 4W 4D 7L from 15 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tianjin Teda's away record stands at 5W 1D 9L across 15 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Sichuan Jiuniu are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.47 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tianjin Teda in 60%.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sichuan Jiuniu
Current Season
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 7W 8D 15L in their last 30 games (0.97 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 12W 6D 12L in their last 30 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sichuan Jiuniu at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Sichuan Jiuniu's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sichuan Jiuniu at home: 1.07 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Mar 2024, when Tianjin Teda won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sichuan Jiuniu's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sichuan Jiuniu
0
Draws
4
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Tianjin Teda?
From 6 meetings on record, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 2, Tianjin Teda have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sichuan Jiuniu and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Tianjin Teda 3-0 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Who has won more matches between Sichuan Jiuniu and Tianjin Teda?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sichuan Jiuniu 53%, Tianjin Teda 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Sichuan Jiuniu and 80% for Tianjin Teda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sichuan Jiuniu have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sichuan Jiuniu home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sichuan Jiuniu play Tianjin Teda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Sichuan Jiuniu's games and 73% of Tianjin Teda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Sichuan Jiuniu's matches and 80% of Tianjin Teda's.
Do Sichuan Jiuniu and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Sichuan Jiuniu have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sichuan Jiuniu defy the odds to beat Tianjin Teda 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sichuan Jiuniu beat Tianjin Teda 1-0 at Longquanyi Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 1.75 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.85 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Tianjin Teda landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.02 / defence 1.36 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.94 / defence 0.99, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 36% | Draw 25% | Tianjin Teda 39%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Sichuan Jiuniu win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sichuan Jiuniu 57%, Tianjin Teda 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Tianjin Teda arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Sichuan Jiuniu winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.