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Shandong Luneng cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sichuan Jiuniu.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shandong Luneng beat Sichuan Jiuniu 1-3 at Longquanyi Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 2.19 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.69 xG, a combined 3.88. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sichuan Jiuniu fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Shandong Luneng outscored their 1.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.08 / defence 1.18 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.05 / defence 1.13, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 49% | Draw 21% | Shandong Luneng 30%, with Sichuan Jiuniu to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Shandong Luneng win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sichuan Jiuniu 66%, Shandong Luneng 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Shandong Luneng's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.92. That form edge translated into the three points. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights