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Dominant Sichuan Jiuniu run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Qingdao Jonoon.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sichuan Jiuniu beat Qingdao Jonoon 4-0 at Shenzhen Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 1.75 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.01 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Sichuan Jiuniu beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Qingdao Jonoon landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.00 / defence 1.12 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.69 / defence 1.05, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 55% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Jonoon 22%, with Sichuan Jiuniu to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sichuan Jiuniu 63%, Qingdao Jonoon 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sichuan Jiuniu 0.93 PPG, Qingdao Jonoon 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sichuan Jiuniu win broke the near-deadlock. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights