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Poisson model rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Qingdao Jonoon travel to Shenzhen Stadium to take on Sichuan Jiuniu. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 July 2025, 12:35 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Super League games this season, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sichuan Jiuniu's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Shenzhen Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Qingdao Jonoon stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Super League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Super League this season, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 0W 1D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Sichuan Jiuniu are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sichuan Jiuniu, 2 for Qingdao Jonoon and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2025, ended 1–0 with Sichuan Jiuniu winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Sichuan Jiuniu trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 35% of games.

Qingdao Jonoon trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sichuan Jiuniu 54% versus Qingdao Jonoon 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sichuan Jiuniu 63% | Qingdao Jonoon 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.75 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.996 / defence 1.125 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.693 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.684 / away 1.293. Data: 46 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 46 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 55% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Jonoon 22%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Qingdao Jonoon 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Sichuan Jiuniu (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Sichuan Jiuniu as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Sichuan Jiuniu 80% | Qingdao Jonoon 40% BTTS from recent games.

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