Sichuan Jiuniu 4-0 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Qingdao Jonoon travel to Shenzhen Stadium to take on Sichuan Jiuniu. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 July 2025, 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sichuan Jiuniu's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Shenzhen Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Qingdao Jonoon stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Super League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 0W 1D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Sichuan Jiuniu are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sichuan Jiuniu, 2 for Qingdao Jonoon and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2025, ended 1–0 with Sichuan Jiuniu winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sichuan Jiuniu trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Qingdao Jonoon trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sichuan Jiuniu 54% versus Qingdao Jonoon 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sichuan Jiuniu 63% | Qingdao Jonoon 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.75 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.996 / defence 1.125 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.693 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.684 / away 1.293. Data: 46 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 46 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 55% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Jonoon 22%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Qingdao Jonoon 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Sichuan Jiuniu (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sichuan Jiuniu as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Sichuan Jiuniu 80% | Qingdao Jonoon 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Shenzhen Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Jul 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 55% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Jonoon 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 1.75 / Qingdao Jonoon 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.996 / def 1.125 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.693 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.684 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Sichuan Jiuniu (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Qingdao Jonoon xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 19 July 2025 at Shenzhen Stadium.
What was the final score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Sichuan Jiuniu 4 - 0 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Stadium.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 55% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sichuan Jiuniu the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Jonoon?
Record (3 meetings): Sichuan Jiuniu 1W | Draws 0 | Qingdao Jonoon 2W.
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Jonoon in?
Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sichuan Jiuniu's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Qingdao Jonoon's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Jonoon's attack versus Sichuan Jiuniu's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sichuan Jiuniu Win
55%
1.82
24%
4.26
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Total xG
2.76
1.01
Qingdao Jonoon xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.26
24%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
17%
5.78
Win to Nil
20%
4.99
4%
26.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.2 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 1.01 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sichuan Jiuniu come into this having played 46 games, going 11W 10D 25L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Sichuan Jiuniu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Qingdao Jonoon sit at 0.80 PPG from 46 outings (9W 10D 27L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Qingdao Jonoon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sichuan Jiuniu on 0.93 PPG, Qingdao Jonoon on 0.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sichuan Jiuniu's home form reads 7W 5D 11L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Qingdao Jonoon have taken 0.39 points per game from 23 outings (2W 3D 18L). That's a step down from their 0.80 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Qingdao Jonoon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sichuan Jiuniu come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sichuan Jiuniu are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Jonoon are on 0.89 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sichuan Jiuniu
Blended
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Jonoon in coming into this match?
Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 11W 10D 25L in their last 46 games (0.93 PPG), while Qingdao Jonoon have gone 9W 10D 27L in their last 46 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sichuan Jiuniu at home or Qingdao Jonoon away?
Sichuan Jiuniu's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sichuan Jiuniu at home: 1.13 PPG; Qingdao Jonoon away: 0.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Jonoon runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 30 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sichuan Jiuniu have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Jul 2025, when Sichuan Jiuniu won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sichuan Jiuniu's record when hosting Qingdao Jonoon specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Sichuan Jiuniu
0
Draws
2
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 5 meetings on record, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 3, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Sichuan Jiuniu 3-2 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Jonoon?
Sichuan Jiuniu have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sichuan Jiuniu 65%, Qingdao Jonoon 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Sichuan Jiuniu) and 39% (Qingdao Jonoon).
On the defensive side: Sichuan Jiuniu have failed to score in 26% of games; Qingdao Jonoon in 61%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sichuan Jiuniu home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sichuan Jiuniu play Qingdao Jonoon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Sichuan Jiuniu's recent matches and 35% of Qingdao Jonoon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 70% of Sichuan Jiuniu's recent games and 39% of Qingdao Jonoon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Jonoon tend to score early?
Sichuan Jiuniu have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Qingdao Jonoon in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sichuan Jiuniu run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Qingdao Jonoon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sichuan Jiuniu beat Qingdao Jonoon 4-0 at Shenzhen Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 1.75 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.01 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Sichuan Jiuniu beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Qingdao Jonoon landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.00 / defence 1.12 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.69 / defence 1.05, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 55% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Jonoon 22%, with Sichuan Jiuniu to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sichuan Jiuniu 63%, Qingdao Jonoon 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sichuan Jiuniu 0.93 PPG, Qingdao Jonoon 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sichuan Jiuniu win broke the near-deadlock. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.