Sichuan Jiuniu 2-1 Nantong Zhiyun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nantong Zhiyun at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Nantong Zhiyun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Baoan Sports Centre Stadium plays host to Sichuan Jiuniu versus Nantong Zhiyun in Super League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Saturday 2 November 2024 at 07:30 UTC.
Form
Sichuan Jiuniu (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Sichuan Jiuniu at Baoan Sports Centre Stadium this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Nantong Zhiyun's overall Super League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Nantong Zhiyun have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 3.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Sichuan Jiuniu against 0.80 for Nantong Zhiyun. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Sichuan Jiuniu 1W, Nantong Zhiyun 0W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jun 2024, ended 1–0 with Sichuan Jiuniu winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Sichuan Jiuniu half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Nantong Zhiyun half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sichuan Jiuniu 52% versus Nantong Zhiyun 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sichuan Jiuniu 55% | Nantong Zhiyun 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.30 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.572 / defence 1.285 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.961 / defence 1.252. League average goals — home 1.823 / away 1.272. Sichuan Jiuniu's attack strength of 0.572 is below the league average — the 1.30 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Nantong Zhiyun bring a strong defensive rating of 1.252 — this is suppressing Sichuan Jiuniu's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 59 Nantong Zhiyun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 31% | Draw 25% | Nantong Zhiyun 43%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | Nantong Zhiyun 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nantong Zhiyun at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nantong Zhiyun if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sichuan Jiuniu 40% | Nantong Zhiyun 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Nantong Zhiyun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Baoan Sports Centre Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 31% | Draw 25% | Nantong Zhiyun 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 1.30 / Nantong Zhiyun 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.572 / def 1.285 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.961 / def 1.252 | league avg home 1.823 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Nantong Zhiyun (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Nantong Zhiyun xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs Nantong Zhiyun kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Nantong Zhiyun kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Baoan Sports Centre Stadium.
What was the final score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Sichuan Jiuniu 2 - 1 Nantong Zhiyun.
Where is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Nantong Zhiyun being played?
The match is being played at Baoan Sports Centre Stadium.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Nantong Zhiyun part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Nantong Zhiyun is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 31% chance of winning, Nantong Zhiyun a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Nantong Zhiyun the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and Nantong Zhiyun will score (BTTS).
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs Nantong Zhiyun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Nantong Zhiyun?
Record (1 meetings): Sichuan Jiuniu 1W | Draws 0 | Nantong Zhiyun 0W.
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Nantong Zhiyun in?
Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Nantong Zhiyun (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Sichuan Jiuniu vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sichuan Jiuniu's attacking strength (0.57x league average) is weighed against Nantong Zhiyun's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Nantong Zhiyun's attack (0.96x) against Sichuan Jiuniu's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 29/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nantong Zhiyun Win
31%
3.19
25%
3.93
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Total xG
2.88
1.57
Nantong Zhiyun xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
21%
4.81
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
7%
15.37
12%
8.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.9 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.6 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Sichuan Jiuniu and Nantong Zhiyun expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 1.57 for Nantong Zhiyun, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sichuan Jiuniu's recent record stands at 6W 8D 15L from 29 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five.
Nantong Zhiyun, meanwhile, have gone 5W 7D 17L across 29 games — 0.76 PPG, with L-W-W-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.90 PPG for Sichuan Jiuniu against 0.76 for Nantong Zhiyun. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sichuan Jiuniu have managed 3W 4D 7L from 14 games — 0.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nantong Zhiyun's away record stands at 2W 4D 8L across 14 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Sichuan Jiuniu are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Nantong Zhiyun are on 1.07 scored and 2.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nantong Zhiyun in 66%.
Last 29 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sichuan Jiuniu
Current Season
Nantong Zhiyun
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Nantong Zhiyun in coming into this match?
Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 6W 8D 15L in their last 29 games (0.90 PPG), while Nantong Zhiyun have gone 5W 7D 17L in their last 29 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sichuan Jiuniu at home or Nantong Zhiyun away?
Sichuan Jiuniu's home record (0.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sichuan Jiuniu at home: 0.93 PPG; Nantong Zhiyun away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 November 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Sichuan Jiuniu
0
Draws
0
Nantong Zhiyun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Nantong Zhiyun?
From 2 meetings on record, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 2, Nantong Zhiyun have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sichuan Jiuniu and Nantong Zhiyun last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2024, when Sichuan Jiuniu 2-1 Nantong Zhiyun.
Who has won more matches between Sichuan Jiuniu and Nantong Zhiyun?
Sichuan Jiuniu have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Nantong Zhiyun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sichuan Jiuniu 50%, Nantong Zhiyun 79% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Sichuan Jiuniu and 64% for Nantong Zhiyun. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sichuan Jiuniu have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sichuan Jiuniu home games / Nantong Zhiyun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sichuan Jiuniu play Nantong Zhiyun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Sichuan Jiuniu's games and 79% of Nantong Zhiyun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Nantong Zhiyun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Sichuan Jiuniu's matches and 64% of Nantong Zhiyun's.
Do Sichuan Jiuniu and Nantong Zhiyun tend to score early?
Sichuan Jiuniu have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Nantong Zhiyun in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sichuan Jiuniu defy the odds to beat Nantong Zhiyun 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sichuan Jiuniu beat Nantong Zhiyun 2-1 at Baoan Sports Centre Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 1.30 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 1.57 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.57 / defence 1.28 against Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.96 / defence 1.25, drawn from 29/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 31% | Draw 25% | Nantong Zhiyun 43%, with Nantong Zhiyun to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Sichuan Jiuniu win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sichuan Jiuniu 55%, Nantong Zhiyun 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Nantong Zhiyun's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sichuan Jiuniu 0.90 PPG, Nantong Zhiyun 0.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sichuan Jiuniu win broke the near-deadlock. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.