🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Henan Jianye cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sichuan Jiuniu.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Henan Jianye beat Sichuan Jiuniu 1-3 at Longquanyi Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 1.46 xG and Henan Jianye 1.50 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Henan Jianye outscored their 1.50 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.04 / defence 1.29 against Henan Jianye attack 0.76 / defence 0.85, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 35% | Draw 28% | Henan Jianye 37%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sichuan Jiuniu 57%, Henan Jianye 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Henan Jianye's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sichuan Jiuniu 0.97 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Henan Jianye win broke the near-deadlock. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights