Sichuan Jiuniu 1-1 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown make the trip to Longquanyi Stadium to face Sichuan Jiuniu in Super League, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Form
Sichuan Jiuniu (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sichuan Jiuniu at Longquanyi Stadium this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hangzhou Greentown have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hangzhou Greentown away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Sichuan Jiuniu against 1.30 for Hangzhou Greentown. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sichuan Jiuniu have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Hangzhou Greentown in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Hangzhou Greentown, who have claimed 4 wins from 5 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 1–2 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Hangzhou Greentown have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Sichuan Jiuniu goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Hangzhou Greentown goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sichuan Jiuniu 56% and Hangzhou Greentown 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sichuan Jiuniu 64% | Hangzhou Greentown 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 2.18 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.137 / defence 0.996 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.024 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.342. Data: 53 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 52 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 56% | Draw 20% | Hangzhou Greentown 24%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 1.79 | Draw 5.00 | Hangzhou Greentown 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Sichuan Jiuniu (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.18 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sichuan Jiuniu are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.55 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Sichuan Jiuniu 60% | Hangzhou Greentown 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Longquanyi Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 56% | Draw 20% | Hangzhou Greentown 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 66% | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 2.18 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.137 / def 0.996 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.024 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.701 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: Sichuan Jiuniu (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Hangzhou Greentown xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 11:35 on Saturday 22 August 2026 at Longquanyi Stadium.
What was the final score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Sichuan Jiuniu 1 - 1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Longquanyi Stadium.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 56% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 24% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Sichuan Jiuniu the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (5 meetings): Sichuan Jiuniu 1W | Draws 0 | Hangzhou Greentown 4W.
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sichuan Jiuniu's attack rating (1.14) and Hangzhou Greentown's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 2.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hangzhou Greentown's attack (1.02x) against Sichuan Jiuniu's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 53/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sichuan Jiuniu Win
56%
1.79
20%
4.90
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Total xG
3.55
1.37
Hangzhou Greentown xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.90
20%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
11%
8.86
Win to Nil
14%
7.02
3%
37.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Sichuan Jiuniu and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 1.37 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sichuan Jiuniu's recent record stands at 16W 5D 31L from 52 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Sichuan Jiuniu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hangzhou Greentown, meanwhile, have gone 18W 17D 17L across 52 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for Sichuan Jiuniu against 1.37 for Hangzhou Greentown. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sichuan Jiuniu have managed 12W 3D 11L from 26 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.02 PPG overall — Sichuan Jiuniu are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Hangzhou Greentown's away record stands at 7W 6D 13L across 26 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sichuan Jiuniu come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sichuan Jiuniu are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.79 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown in 65%.
Last 52 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sichuan Jiuniu
Blended
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 16W 5D 31L in their last 52 games (1.02 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 18W 17D 17L in their last 52 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sichuan Jiuniu at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Sichuan Jiuniu's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sichuan Jiuniu at home: 1.50 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since March 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hangzhou Greentown won 3-0 on 1 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hangzhou Greentown — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Sichuan Jiuniu
1
Draws
4
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 6 meetings on record, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 1, Hangzhou Greentown have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sichuan Jiuniu and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Sichuan Jiuniu 1-1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Sichuan Jiuniu and Hangzhou Greentown?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sichuan Jiuniu 69%, Hangzhou Greentown 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Sichuan Jiuniu and 69% for Hangzhou Greentown. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hangzhou Greentown in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sichuan Jiuniu home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sichuan Jiuniu play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Sichuan Jiuniu's games and 58% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Sichuan Jiuniu's matches and 69% of Hangzhou Greentown's.
Do Sichuan Jiuniu and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Sichuan Jiuniu have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sichuan Jiuniu and Hangzhou Greentown share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sichuan Jiuniu and Hangzhou Greentown finished level at 1-1 at Longquanyi Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 2.18 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.37 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Sichuan Jiuniu fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.14 / defence 1.00 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.02 / defence 1.13, drawn from 53/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 56% | Draw 20% | Hangzhou Greentown 24%, with Sichuan Jiuniu to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sichuan Jiuniu 64%, Hangzhou Greentown 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sichuan Jiuniu 1.02 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.