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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Hangzhou Greentown cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Sichuan Jiuniu.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hangzhou Greentown beat Sichuan Jiuniu 2-4 at Shenzhen Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 1.83 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.47 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown outscored their 1.47 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.09 / defence 1.01 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.10 / defence 0.95, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 46% | Draw 24% | Hangzhou Greentown 30%, with Sichuan Jiuniu to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Hangzhou Greentown win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sichuan Jiuniu 65%, Hangzhou Greentown 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sichuan Jiuniu 0.96 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hangzhou Greentown win broke the near-deadlock. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights