🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Hangzhou Greentown make the trip to Shenzhen Stadium to face Sichuan Jiuniu in Super League, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 August 2025 at 13:00 UTC.

Form

Sichuan Jiuniu (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sichuan Jiuniu at Shenzhen Stadium this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Sichuan Jiuniu are significantly better at Shenzhen Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Hangzhou Greentown have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Hangzhou Greentown away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Hangzhou Greentown are 0.60 PPG clear of Sichuan Jiuniu in recent Super League fixtures (1.70 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Sichuan Jiuniu, 2 for Hangzhou Greentown and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2025, ended 0–3 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Sichuan Jiuniu goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Hangzhou Greentown goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sichuan Jiuniu 54% and Hangzhou Greentown 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sichuan Jiuniu 65% | Hangzhou Greentown 77%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.83 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.094 / defence 1.010 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.101 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.755 / away 1.322. Data: 48 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 48 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 46% | Draw 24% | Hangzhou Greentown 30%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Hangzhou Greentown 3.33. Sichuan Jiuniu hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Sichuan Jiuniu are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hangzhou Greentown (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sichuan Jiuniu if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.30 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Sichuan Jiuniu 80% | Hangzhou Greentown 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights