Sichuan Jiuniu 2-4 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown make the trip to Shenzhen Stadium to face Sichuan Jiuniu in Super League, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 August 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Sichuan Jiuniu (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sichuan Jiuniu at Shenzhen Stadium this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Sichuan Jiuniu are significantly better at Shenzhen Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Hangzhou Greentown have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hangzhou Greentown away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Hangzhou Greentown are 0.60 PPG clear of Sichuan Jiuniu in recent Super League fixtures (1.70 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Sichuan Jiuniu, 2 for Hangzhou Greentown and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2025, ended 0–3 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Sichuan Jiuniu goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Hangzhou Greentown goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sichuan Jiuniu 54% and Hangzhou Greentown 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sichuan Jiuniu 65% | Hangzhou Greentown 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.83 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.094 / defence 1.010 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.101 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.755 / away 1.322. Data: 48 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 48 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 46% | Draw 24% | Hangzhou Greentown 30%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Hangzhou Greentown 3.33. Sichuan Jiuniu hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sichuan Jiuniu are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hangzhou Greentown (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sichuan Jiuniu if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.30 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Sichuan Jiuniu 80% | Hangzhou Greentown 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Shenzhen Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Aug 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 46% | Draw 24% | Hangzhou Greentown 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 1.83 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.094 / def 1.010 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.101 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.755 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: Sichuan Jiuniu (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Hangzhou Greentown xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 3 August 2025 at Shenzhen Stadium.
What was the final score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Sichuan Jiuniu 2 - 4 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Stadium.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 46% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sichuan Jiuniu the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (3 meetings): Sichuan Jiuniu 1W | Draws 0 | Hangzhou Greentown 2W.
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sichuan Jiuniu's attack rating (1.09) and Hangzhou Greentown's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hangzhou Greentown's attack (1.10x) against Sichuan Jiuniu's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sichuan Jiuniu Win
46%
2.19
24%
4.20
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Total xG
3.30
1.47
Hangzhou Greentown xG
2.19
46%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
16%
6.25
Win to Nil
10%
9.53
5%
20.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.9 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Sichuan Jiuniu and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 1.47 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sichuan Jiuniu's recent record stands at 12W 10D 26L from 48 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Sichuan Jiuniu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hangzhou Greentown, meanwhile, have gone 18W 10D 20L across 48 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Sichuan Jiuniu against 1.33 for Hangzhou Greentown. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sichuan Jiuniu have managed 8W 5D 11L from 24 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hangzhou Greentown's away record stands at 5W 3D 16L across 24 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hangzhou Greentown's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sichuan Jiuniu come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sichuan Jiuniu are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.88 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown in 67%.
Last 48 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sichuan Jiuniu
Blended
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 12W 10D 26L in their last 48 games (0.96 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 18W 10D 20L in their last 48 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sichuan Jiuniu at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Sichuan Jiuniu's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sichuan Jiuniu at home: 1.21 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since March 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hangzhou Greentown won 3-0 on 1 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hangzhou Greentown — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Sichuan Jiuniu
1
Draws
4
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 6 meetings on record, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 1, Hangzhou Greentown have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sichuan Jiuniu and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Sichuan Jiuniu 1-1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Sichuan Jiuniu and Hangzhou Greentown?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sichuan Jiuniu 62%, Hangzhou Greentown 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Sichuan Jiuniu and 67% for Hangzhou Greentown. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hangzhou Greentown in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sichuan Jiuniu home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sichuan Jiuniu play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Sichuan Jiuniu's games and 50% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Sichuan Jiuniu's matches and 67% of Hangzhou Greentown's.
Do Sichuan Jiuniu and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Sichuan Jiuniu have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hangzhou Greentown cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Sichuan Jiuniu.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Sichuan Jiuniu 2-4 at Shenzhen Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 1.83 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.47 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown outscored their 1.47 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.09 / defence 1.01 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.10 / defence 0.95, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 46% | Draw 24% | Hangzhou Greentown 30%, with Sichuan Jiuniu to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Hangzhou Greentown win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sichuan Jiuniu 65%, Hangzhou Greentown 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sichuan Jiuniu 0.96 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hangzhou Greentown win broke the near-deadlock. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.