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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sichuan Jiuniu and Dalian Zhixing share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sichuan Jiuniu and Dalian Zhixing finished level at 1-1 at Longquanyi Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 2.31 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.22 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Sichuan Jiuniu fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.12 / defence 1.39 against Dalian Zhixing attack 0.59 / defence 1.17, drawn from 38/8 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 60% | Draw 22% | Dalian Zhixing 18%, with Sichuan Jiuniu to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights