Sichuan Jiuniu 1-1 Dalian Zhixing – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Dalian Zhixing fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Dalian Zhixing travel to Longquanyi Stadium to take on Sichuan Jiuniu. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 April 2025, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sichuan Jiuniu stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Longquanyi Stadium, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Sichuan Jiuniu are significantly better at Longquanyi Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 2.31 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.123 / defence 1.392 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.594 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.761 / away 1.477. Data: 38 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 8 Dalian Zhixing games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 60% | Draw 22% | Dalian Zhixing 18%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Dalian Zhixing 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Sichuan Jiuniu (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.31 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sichuan Jiuniu as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.53 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Dalian Zhixing | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Longquanyi Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Apr 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 60% | Draw 22% | Dalian Zhixing 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 65% | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 2.31 / Dalian Zhixing 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.123 / def 1.392 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.594 / def 1.168 | league avg home 1.761 / away 1.477 • Poisson stance: Sichuan Jiuniu (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Dalian Zhixing xG
65%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs Dalian Zhixing kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Dalian Zhixing kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 26 April 2025 at Longquanyi Stadium.
What was the final score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Dalian Zhixing?
Sichuan Jiuniu 1 - 1 Dalian Zhixing.
Where is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Dalian Zhixing being played?
The match is being played at Longquanyi Stadium.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Dalian Zhixing part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Dalian Zhixing is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 60% chance of winning, Dalian Zhixing a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sichuan Jiuniu the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and Dalian Zhixing will score (BTTS).
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs Dalian Zhixing have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Dalian Zhixing?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Dalian Zhixing in?
Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Sichuan Jiuniu home split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sichuan Jiuniu's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Dalian Zhixing's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.31. The same calculation in reverse, Dalian Zhixing's attack versus Sichuan Jiuniu's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sichuan Jiuniu Win
60%
1.65
22%
4.61
18%
5.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Total xG
3.53
1.22
Dalian Zhixing xG
1.65
60%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
5.60
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
10%
10.05
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
2%
56.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Sichuan Jiuniu and Dalian Zhixing expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 1.22 for Dalian Zhixing, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Dalian Zhixing?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sichuan Jiuniu
Pre-Season
Dalian Zhixing
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sichuan Jiuniu and Dalian Zhixing runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 19 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sichuan Jiuniu's record when hosting Dalian Zhixing specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Sichuan Jiuniu
2
Draws
1
Dalian Zhixing
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Dalian Zhixing?
From 3 meetings on record, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 0, Dalian Zhixing have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sichuan Jiuniu and Dalian Zhixing last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2026, when Sichuan Jiuniu 1-1 Dalian Zhixing.
Who has won more matches between Sichuan Jiuniu and Dalian Zhixing?
Dalian Zhixing have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sichuan Jiuniu home games / Dalian Zhixing away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Sichuan Jiuniu and Dalian Zhixing share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sichuan Jiuniu and Dalian Zhixing finished level at 1-1 at Longquanyi Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 2.31 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.22 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Sichuan Jiuniu fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.12 / defence 1.39 against Dalian Zhixing attack 0.59 / defence 1.17, drawn from 38/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 60% | Draw 22% | Dalian Zhixing 18%, with Sichuan Jiuniu to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.