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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sichuan Jiuniu and Chengdu Better City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sichuan Jiuniu and Chengdu Better City finished level at 1-1 at Baoan Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 1.63 xG and Chengdu Better City 2.00 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Chengdu Better City landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.99 / defence 1.06 against Chengdu Better City attack 1.31 / defence 0.93, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 32% | Draw 22% | Chengdu Better City 47%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sichuan Jiuniu 64%, Chengdu Better City 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Chengdu Better City's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights