Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-1 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Meizhou Kejia meet at Cangzhou Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 September 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s overall Super League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Cangzhou Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Meizhou Kejia have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 3.00. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Meizhou Kejia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Meizhou Kejia have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Shijiazhuang Y. J. against 1.00 for Meizhou Kejia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Shijiazhuang Y. J. lead 1W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Shijiazhuang Y. J. — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Meizhou Kejia — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 57% and Meizhou Kejia 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50% | Meizhou Kejia 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.03 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.834 / defence 1.256 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.993 / defence 1.359. League average goals — home 1.790 / away 1.328. Meizhou Kejia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.359 — this is suppressing Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 54 Meizhou Kejia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 47% | Draw 21% | Meizhou Kejia 32%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.13 | Draw 4.76 | Meizhou Kejia 3.12. Shijiazhuang Y. J. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.03 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shijiazhuang Y. J. are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 60% | Meizhou Kejia 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Cangzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Sep 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 47% | Draw 21% | Meizhou Kejia 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 70% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.03 / Meizhou Kejia 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.834 / def 1.256 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.993 / def 1.359 | league avg home 1.790 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Meizhou Kejia xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Cangzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2 - 1 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Cangzhou Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 47% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 32% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Meizhou Kejia will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Meizhou Kejia?
Record (5 meetings): Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1W | Draws 2 | Meizhou Kejia 2W.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Meizhou Kejia in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 3.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Meizhou Kejia's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.03. Flip it around — Meizhou Kejia's attack (0.99x) against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
47%
2.14
21%
4.69
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
3.69
1.66
Meizhou Kejia xG
2.14
47%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.37
Clean Sheet
19%
5.24
13%
7.61
Win to Nil
9%
11.21
4%
23.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1.66 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 3.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shijiazhuang Y. J. come into this having played 54 games, going 14W 13D 27L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-W. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Meizhou Kejia sit at 1.06 PPG from 54 outings (14W 15D 25L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Meizhou Kejia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for Shijiazhuang Y. J. against 1.06 for Meizhou Kejia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s home form reads 9W 6D 11L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Meizhou Kejia have taken 0.73 points per game from 26 outings (4W 7D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shijiazhuang Y. J. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 2.02 conceded per game recently; Meizhou Kejia are on 1.24 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Meizhou Kejia in 63%.
Last 54 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Meizhou Kejia in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 14W 13D 27L in their last 54 games (1.02 PPG), while Meizhou Kejia have gone 14W 15D 25L in their last 54 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Meizhou Kejia away?
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.27 PPG; Meizhou Kejia away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 September 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Meizhou Kejia won 4-1 on 29 Jun 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Meizhou Kejia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
2
Draws
2
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Meizhou Kejia?
From 6 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 2, Meizhou Kejia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2024, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-1 Meizhou Kejia.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 58%, Meizhou Kejia 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.) and 65% (Meizhou Kejia).
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 31% of games; Meizhou Kejia in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play Meizhou Kejia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s games and 62% of Meizhou Kejia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 65% of Meizhou Kejia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Meizhou Kejia tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Meizhou Kejia in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shijiazhuang Y. J. edge out Meizhou Kejia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat Meizhou Kejia 2-1 at Cangzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.03 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.66 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.83 / defence 1.26 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.99 / defence 1.36, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 47% | Draw 21% | Meizhou Kejia 32%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%, Meizhou Kejia 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.02 PPG, Meizhou Kejia 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shijiazhuang Y. J. win broke the near-deadlock. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.