Meizhou Kejia 1-3 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Guoan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 26 as Meizhou Kejia welcome Beijing Guoan to Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 20 September 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Meizhou Kejia — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 3.00 conceded. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Meizhou Kejia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Meizhou Kejia have posted 3W 4D 3L at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beijing Guoan stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Beijing Guoan have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Beijing Guoan's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Meizhou Kejia's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Meizhou Kejia, 1 for Beijing Guoan and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2024, ended 2–3 with Beijing Guoan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Meizhou Kejia in-play and half-time data (55 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Beijing Guoan in-play and half-time data (55 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Meizhou Kejia 64% and Beijing Guoan 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Meizhou Kejia 62% | Beijing Guoan 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 1.32 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.779 / defence 1.068 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.995 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.786 / away 1.316. Meizhou Kejia's attack strength of 0.779 is below the league average — the 1.32 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 55 Meizhou Kejia games / 55 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 35% | Draw 26% | Beijing Guoan 39%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Beijing Guoan 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beijing Guoan at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Meizhou Kejia 70% | Beijing Guoan 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 20 Sep 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 35% | Draw 26% | Beijing Guoan 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Meizhou Kejia 1.32 / Beijing Guoan 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.779 / def 1.068 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.995 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.786 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Meizhou Kejia xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Beijing Guoan xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 20 September 2024 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What was the final score in Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Guoan?
Meizhou Kejia 1 - 3 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What competition is Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Meizhou Kejia a 35% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Meizhou Kejia and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Beijing Guoan?
Record (5 meetings): Meizhou Kejia 1W | Draws 3 | Beijing Guoan 1W.
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Beijing Guoan in?
Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Meizhou Kejia's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Beijing Guoan's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Beijing Guoan's attack versus Meizhou Kejia's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
35%
2.83
26%
3.89
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Meizhou Kejia xG
Total xG
2.72
1.40
Beijing Guoan xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
9%
11.47
10%
9.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.2 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Meizhou Kejia and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Meizhou Kejia and 1.40 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Meizhou Kejia come into this having played 55 games, going 14W 15D 26L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Meizhou Kejia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Beijing Guoan sit at 1.71 PPG from 55 outings (26W 16D 13L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beijing Guoan carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Meizhou Kejia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Meizhou Kejia's home form reads 10W 8D 10L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Beijing Guoan have taken 1.43 points per game from 28 outings (10W 10D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Meizhou Kejia are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.76 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Meizhou Kejia have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Beijing Guoan in 62%.
Last 55 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
Beijing Guoan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Meizhou Kejia have gone 14W 15D 26L in their last 55 games (1.04 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 26W 16D 13L in their last 55 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Meizhou Kejia at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Beijing Guoan's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Meizhou Kejia at home: 1.36 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Meizhou Kejia or Beijing Guoan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Meizhou Kejia have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Beijing Guoan in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Beijing Guoan have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Jun 2025, when Beijing Guoan won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Meizhou Kejia's record when hosting Beijing Guoan specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Meizhou Kejia
3
Draws
4
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Beijing Guoan?
From 8 meetings on record, Meizhou Kejia have won 1, Beijing Guoan have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Meizhou Kejia and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when Beijing Guoan 5-1 Meizhou Kejia.
Who has won more matches between Meizhou Kejia and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Meizhou Kejia 64%, Beijing Guoan 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Meizhou Kejia) and 50% (Beijing Guoan).
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan in 32%; Meizhou Kejia have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Meizhou Kejia home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Meizhou Kejia play Beijing Guoan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Meizhou Kejia's games and 61% of Beijing Guoan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Meizhou Kejia's recent games and 50% of Beijing Guoan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Meizhou Kejia and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Meizhou Kejia have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beijing Guoan cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Meizhou Kejia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Meizhou Kejia 1-3 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.32 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.40 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Beijing Guoan outscored their 1.40 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 0.78 / defence 1.07 against Beijing Guoan attack 0.99 / defence 0.95, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 35% | Draw 26% | Beijing Guoan 39%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 62%, Beijing Guoan 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.04. That form edge translated into the three points. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.