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Last-gasp drama as SHANGHAI SIPG snatch the points — SHANGHAI SIPG 2-1 Yunnan Yukun.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SHANGHAI SIPG found a late winner to edge Yunnan Yukun 2-1 at Pudong Football Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. It was 1-0 at the break, with 2 further goals after it. Scorers: Leonardo (35') · A. Burca (61') · Wang Shenchao (90'). The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 2.21 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.27 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.15 / defence 1.09 against Yunnan Yukun attack 1.03 / defence 1.03, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 59% | Draw 20% | Yunnan Yukun 21%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 80%, Yunnan Yukun 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 78%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 93% of games, and here they did; BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.

Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 83% of games, and here they did not; BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did; they recover from half-time deficits 20% of the time, but could not this time.

Form vs Result

On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.40. Form held, and they took the win.

In-Play Signals

SHANGHAI SIPG controlled the ball (57%). That matched the side the model favoured, and they converted the territory into the win the numbers expected. Yunnan Yukun shot more often (18 to 12, 7 on target). SHANGHAI SIPG were the sharper finishers, converting at 17% against 6% — the kind of finishing edge that decides games the underlying numbers call close. The scoring opened before half-time (1-0 at the interval). 2 of the 3 goals arrived after the restart.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected. With the decisive goal arriving late, the fixture spent most of its length tracking closer to expectation than the final scoreline suggests.

💡 Key Insights

⚡ Key Moments

📊 Statistics