SHANGHAI SIPG 2-1 Yunnan Yukun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Yunnan Yukun encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 4 as SHANGHAI SIPG welcome Yunnan Yukun to Pudong Football Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 April 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have posted 6W 3D 1L at Pudong Football Stadium — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Yunnan Yukun stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Yunnan Yukun's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
SHANGHAI SIPG are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for SHANGHAI SIPG, 0 for Yunnan Yukun and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 5.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2025, ended 4–2 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SHANGHAI SIPG trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
Yunnan Yukun trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SHANGHAI SIPG 83% and Yunnan Yukun 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SHANGHAI SIPG 80% | Yunnan Yukun 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 2.21 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.150 / defence 1.094 | Yunnan Yukun attack 1.035 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.869 / away 1.121. Data: 33 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 33 Yunnan Yukun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 59% | Draw 20% | Yunnan Yukun 21%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.69 | Draw 5.00 | Yunnan Yukun 4.76. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.21 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SHANGHAI SIPG at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.48 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SHANGHAI SIPG 80% | Yunnan Yukun 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Yunnan Yukun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Pudong Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Apr 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 59% | Draw 20% | Yunnan Yukun 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 64% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 2.21 / Yunnan Yukun 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.150 / def 1.094 | Yunnan Yukun attack 1.035 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.869 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Yunnan Yukun xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Yunnan Yukun kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Yunnan Yukun kicked off at 11:35 on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Pudong Football Stadium.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Yunnan Yukun?
SHANGHAI SIPG 2 - 1 Yunnan Yukun.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Yunnan Yukun being played?
The match is being played at Pudong Football Stadium.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Yunnan Yukun part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Yunnan Yukun is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 59% chance of winning, Yunnan Yukun a 21% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Yunnan Yukun will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Yunnan Yukun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Yunnan Yukun?
Record (2 meetings): SHANGHAI SIPG 2W | Draws 0 | Yunnan Yukun 0W.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Yunnan Yukun in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Yunnan Yukun (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SHANGHAI SIPG's attack at 1.15x the league average against Yunnan Yukun's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 2.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Yunnan Yukun's attack versus SHANGHAI SIPG's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
59%
1.71
20%
4.98
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
3.48
1.27
Yunnan Yukun xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.98
20%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
11%
9.07
Win to Nil
16%
6.07
2%
42.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Yunnan Yukun expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.27 for Yunnan Yukun, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Yunnan Yukun?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SHANGHAI SIPG's recent record stands at 20W 6D 4L from 30 games, a 2.20 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Yunnan Yukun, meanwhile, have gone 11W 9D 10L across 30 games — 1.40 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours SHANGHAI SIPG by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Yunnan Yukun heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SHANGHAI SIPG have managed 9W 4D 2L from 15 games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Yunnan Yukun's away record stands at 3W 5D 7L across 15 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Yunnan Yukun's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 2.40 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Yunnan Yukun are on 1.57 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SHANGHAI SIPG have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games; Yunnan Yukun in 73%.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
Yunnan Yukun
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Yunnan Yukun in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 20W 6D 4L in their last 30 games (2.20 PPG), while Yunnan Yukun have gone 11W 9D 10L in their last 30 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Yunnan Yukun away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.07 PPG; Yunnan Yukun away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SHANGHAI SIPG and Yunnan Yukun runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 17 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
SHANGHAI SIPG's record when hosting Yunnan Yukun specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
SHANGHAI SIPG
1
Draws
0
Yunnan Yukun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Yunnan Yukun?
From 4 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 3, Yunnan Yukun have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Yunnan Yukun last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2026, when Yunnan Yukun 2-2 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Yunnan Yukun?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Yunnan Yukun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SHANGHAI SIPG at 80%, Yunnan Yukun at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for SHANGHAI SIPG and 60% for Yunnan Yukun. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Yunnan Yukun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Yunnan Yukun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of SHANGHAI SIPG's games and 80% of Yunnan Yukun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Yunnan Yukun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of SHANGHAI SIPG's matches and 60% of Yunnan Yukun's.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Yunnan Yukun tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Yunnan Yukun in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SHANGHAI SIPG edge out Yunnan Yukun 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Yunnan Yukun 2-1 at Pudong Football Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 2.21 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.27 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.15 / defence 1.09 against Yunnan Yukun attack 1.03 / defence 1.03, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 59% | Draw 20% | Yunnan Yukun 21%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 80%, Yunnan Yukun 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 78%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.40. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.