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SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Pudong Football Stadium, Regular Season - 14, as SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda drew 1-1 in the Super League. It was 0-0 at the break, with 2 further goals after it. Scorers: Leonardo (52') · Xadas (77'). With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.69 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.47 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.14 / defence 1.04 against Tianjin Teda attack 1.15 / defence 0.89, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 43% | Draw 24% | Tianjin Teda 33%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 77%, Tianjin Teda 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 85% of games, and here they did not; BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Tianjin Teda's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 82% of games, and here they did not; BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.43. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.10 scoring average — below par going forward. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.

In-Play Signals

SHANGHAI SIPG controlled the ball (57%). That matched the side the model favoured, and they could not turn the territory into the projected win. SHANGHAI SIPG shot more often (12 to 11, 5 on target). The game stayed goalless into the break before it came to life. 2 of the 2 goals arrived after the restart.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights

⚡ Key Moments

📊 Statistics