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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Youth Island share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Pudong Football Stadium, Regular Season - 18, as SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Youth Island drew 2-2 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.71 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 0.93 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Qingdao Youth Island outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.08 / defence 0.92 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.78 / defence 0.94, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 56% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Youth Island 20%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 74%, Qingdao Youth Island 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights