🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours SHANGHAI SIPG (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SHANGHAI SIPG face Qingdao Youth Island.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

SHANGHAI SIPG host Qingdao Youth Island at Pudong Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 July 2025 at 12:00 UTC.

Form Guide

SHANGHAI SIPG — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SHANGHAI SIPG's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Pudong Football Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Super League games this season, Qingdao Youth Island have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Youth Island, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Super League this season, Qingdao Youth Island have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

SHANGHAI SIPG carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SHANGHAI SIPG register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Qingdao Youth Island in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 2, Qingdao Youth Island 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 5.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Mar 2025, ended 3–3 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

SHANGHAI SIPG trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.

Qingdao Youth Island trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SHANGHAI SIPG 66% and Qingdao Youth Island 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 74% | Qingdao Youth Island 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.71 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.081 / defence 0.923 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.779 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.688 / away 1.298. Data: 47 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 47 Qingdao Youth Island games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 56% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Youth Island 20%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Qingdao Youth Island 5.00. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging only 5.7 goals per meeting point in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: SHANGHAI SIPG 70% | Qingdao Youth Island 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights