SHANGHAI SIPG 2-1 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SHANGHAI SIPG (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SHANGHAI SIPG face Qingdao Jonoon.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 24 as SHANGHAI SIPG welcome Qingdao Jonoon to Pudong Football Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 August 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SHANGHAI SIPG stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG at Pudong Football Stadium this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Qingdao Jonoon have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Jonoon away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
SHANGHAI SIPG are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: SHANGHAI SIPG have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 7 past contests while Qingdao Jonoon have managed just 1 wins.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 1–3 with Qingdao Jonoon winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both SHANGHAI SIPG and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 4.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
SHANGHAI SIPG in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Qingdao Jonoon in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SHANGHAI SIPG 79% and Qingdao Jonoon 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 72% | Qingdao Jonoon 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 2.08 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.887 / defence 0.849 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.902 / defence 1.374. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.367. Qingdao Jonoon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.374 — this is suppressing SHANGHAI SIPG's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 53 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 61% | Draw 21% | Qingdao Jonoon 18%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Qingdao Jonoon 5.56. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SHANGHAI SIPG are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: SHANGHAI SIPG 70% | Qingdao Jonoon 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Pudong Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Aug 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 61% | Draw 21% | Qingdao Jonoon 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 57% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 2.08 / Qingdao Jonoon 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.887 / def 0.849 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.902 / def 1.374 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Qingdao Jonoon xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 11:35 on Sunday 23 August 2026 at Pudong Football Stadium.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon?
SHANGHAI SIPG 2 - 1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Pudong Football Stadium.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 61% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Jonoon?
Record (7 meetings): SHANGHAI SIPG 6W | Draws 0 | Qingdao Jonoon 1W.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Jonoon in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SHANGHAI SIPG's attack at 0.89x the league average against Qingdao Jonoon's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 2.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Jonoon's attack versus SHANGHAI SIPG's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
61%
1.64
21%
4.71
18%
5.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
3.13
1.05
Qingdao Jonoon xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
5.58
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
12%
8.01
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
2%
44.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.05 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SHANGHAI SIPG come into this having played 53 games, going 28W 13D 12L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Qingdao Jonoon sit at 0.87 PPG from 53 outings (11W 13D 29L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Qingdao Jonoon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SHANGHAI SIPG carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.96 PPG clear of Qingdao Jonoon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
SHANGHAI SIPG's home form reads 13W 8D 5L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Qingdao Jonoon have taken 0.42 points per game from 26 outings (2W 5D 19L). That's a step down from their 0.87 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Qingdao Jonoon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Jonoon are on 1.25 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SHANGHAI SIPG have seen both teams score in 79% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Jonoon in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 28W 13D 12L in their last 53 games (1.83 PPG), while Qingdao Jonoon have gone 11W 13D 29L in their last 53 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Qingdao Jonoon away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 1.81 PPG; Qingdao Jonoon away: 0.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Aug 2023, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SHANGHAI SIPG's record when hosting Qingdao Jonoon specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
SHANGHAI SIPG
0
Draws
1
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 8 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 7, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG 2-1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Jonoon?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SHANGHAI SIPG at 77%, Qingdao Jonoon at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for SHANGHAI SIPG and 58% for Qingdao Jonoon. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Qingdao Jonoon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of SHANGHAI SIPG's games and 62% of Qingdao Jonoon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of SHANGHAI SIPG's matches and 58% of Qingdao Jonoon's.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Jonoon tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Qingdao Jonoon in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SHANGHAI SIPG edge out Qingdao Jonoon 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Qingdao Jonoon 2-1 at Pudong Football Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 2.08 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.05 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.89 / defence 0.85 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.90 / defence 1.37, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 61% | Draw 21% | Qingdao Jonoon 18%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 72%, Qingdao Jonoon 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did.
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.