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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SHANGHAI SIPG cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Qingdao Jonoon.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SHANGHAI SIPG beat Qingdao Jonoon 3-1 at Pudong Football Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.90 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.02 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.07 / defence 0.97 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.74 / defence 1.05, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 56% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Jonoon 19%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 67%, Qingdao Jonoon 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights