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Poisson model favours SHANGHAI SIPG (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SHANGHAI SIPG face Qingdao Jonoon.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 12 as SHANGHAI SIPG welcome Qingdao Jonoon to Pudong Football Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 9 May 2025 at 12:35 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, SHANGHAI SIPG stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

SHANGHAI SIPG at Pudong Football Stadium this season: 10W 0D 0L from 10 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 4.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.40 — SHANGHAI SIPG are significantly better at Pudong Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Across all Super League games this season, Qingdao Jonoon have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Qingdao Jonoon away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

SHANGHAI SIPG are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H Record

The fixture history tells a clear story: SHANGHAI SIPG have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 4 past contests while Qingdao Jonoon have managed just 0 wins.

The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Jul 2024, ended 5–0 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both SHANGHAI SIPG and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 4.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Profile

SHANGHAI SIPG in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

Qingdao Jonoon in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 47% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SHANGHAI SIPG 60% versus Qingdao Jonoon 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 67% | Qingdao Jonoon 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.90 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.066 / defence 0.975 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.736 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.693 / away 1.426. Data: 40 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 41 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 56% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Jonoon 19%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Qingdao Jonoon 5.26. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, SHANGHAI SIPG are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.5 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: SHANGHAI SIPG 60% | Qingdao Jonoon 30%.

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