🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as SHANGHAI SIPG edge out Meizhou Kejia 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SHANGHAI SIPG beat Meizhou Kejia 2-1 at Pudong Football Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 2.35 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.24 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.30 / defence 0.82 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.99 / defence 1.09, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 61% | Draw 22% | Meizhou Kejia 18%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 67%, Meizhou Kejia 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.02. Form held, and they took the win. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.90 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights