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Poisson model favours SHANGHAI SIPG (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SHANGHAI SIPG face Meizhou Kejia.

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Match Analysis

SHANGHAI SIPG host Meizhou Kejia at Pudong Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 2 April 2025 at 13:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Super League games this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

SHANGHAI SIPG's home record at Pudong Football Stadium: 10W 0D 0L from 10 Super League appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 4.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.40 — SHANGHAI SIPG are significantly better at Pudong Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Meizhou Kejia — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Super League this season, Meizhou Kejia have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On current form, SHANGHAI SIPG have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

SHANGHAI SIPG hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 0 for Meizhou Kejia, with 1 draws in between.

The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2024, ended 7–2 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both SHANGHAI SIPG and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Data

SHANGHAI SIPG trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

Meizhou Kejia trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SHANGHAI SIPG 60% and Meizhou Kejia 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 67% | Meizhou Kejia 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 2.35 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.296 / defence 0.821 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.992 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.665 / away 1.522. SHANGHAI SIPG carry an above-average attack strength of 1.296 — their λ of 2.35 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 33 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 33 Meizhou Kejia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 61% | Draw 22% | Meizhou Kejia 18%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Meizhou Kejia 5.56. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.35 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.59 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 4.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SHANGHAI SIPG 60% | Meizhou Kejia 50% BTTS from recent games.

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