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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant SHANGHAI SIPG run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Henan Jianye.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SHANGHAI SIPG beat Henan Jianye 4-1 at Pudong Football Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.85 xG and Henan Jianye 1.24 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.09 / defence 0.99 against Henan Jianye attack 0.91 / defence 0.96, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 51% | Draw 25% | Henan Jianye 25%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 76%, Henan Jianye 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Henan Jianye's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 3.12 average — above their attacking norm. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights