SHANGHAI SIPG 4-1 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SHANGHAI SIPG (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SHANGHAI SIPG face Henan Jianye.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG and Henan Jianye meet at Pudong Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Friday 15 August 2025 at 12:35 UTC.
Form
SHANGHAI SIPG (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG at Pudong Football Stadium this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.80 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Pudong Football Stadium this season.
Henan Jianye's overall Super League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward SHANGHAI SIPG. A 1.20 PPG lead over Henan Jianye (2.40 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SHANGHAI SIPG have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Henan Jianye in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours SHANGHAI SIPG, who have won 5 of the last 7 meetings against Henan Jianye — a 0D 2W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Jun 2025, ended 3–1 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both SHANGHAI SIPG and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
SHANGHAI SIPG — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
Henan Jianye — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SHANGHAI SIPG 68% and Henan Jianye 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SHANGHAI SIPG 76% | Henan Jianye 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.85 xG and Henan Jianye 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.087 / defence 0.987 | Henan Jianye attack 0.909 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.773 / away 1.385. Data: 50 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 50 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 51% | Draw 25% | Henan Jianye 25%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Henan Jianye 4.00. SHANGHAI SIPG hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SHANGHAI SIPG 80% | Henan Jianye 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Pudong Football Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 15 Aug 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 51% | Draw 25% | Henan Jianye 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 1.85 / Henan Jianye 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.087 / def 0.987 | Henan Jianye attack 0.909 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.773 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Henan Jianye xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 15 August 2025 at Pudong Football Stadium.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye?
SHANGHAI SIPG 4 - 1 Henan Jianye.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Pudong Football Stadium.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 51% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Henan Jianye?
Record (7 meetings): SHANGHAI SIPG 5W | Draws 0 | Henan Jianye 2W.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Henan Jianye in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Henan Jianye (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SHANGHAI SIPG's attack rating (1.09) and Henan Jianye's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Henan Jianye's attack (0.91x) against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
51%
1.97
25%
4.07
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
3.09
1.24
Henan Jianye xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
16%
6.34
Win to Nil
15%
6.85
4%
25.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.4 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.24 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SHANGHAI SIPG come into this having played 50 games, going 38W 8D 4L for 2.44 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Henan Jianye sit at 1.10 PPG from 50 outings (14W 13D 23L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SHANGHAI SIPG carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.34 PPG clear of Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
SHANGHAI SIPG's home form reads 19W 4D 2L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Henan Jianye have taken 0.92 points per game from 25 outings (5W 8D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 2.86 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.32 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SHANGHAI SIPG have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Henan Jianye in 64%.
Last 50 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 38W 8D 4L in their last 50 games (2.44 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 14W 13D 23L in their last 50 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Henan Jianye away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.44 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 0.92 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won 4-1 on 15 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
SHANGHAI SIPG
0
Draws
3
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Henan Jianye?
From 10 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 7, Henan Jianye have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when Henan Jianye 1-2 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Henan Jianye?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 76% for SHANGHAI SIPG, 60% for Henan Jianye — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for SHANGHAI SIPG and 52% for Henan Jianye. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Henan Jianye?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of SHANGHAI SIPG's games and 60% of Henan Jianye's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of SHANGHAI SIPG's matches and 52% of Henan Jianye's.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SHANGHAI SIPG run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Henan Jianye.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Henan Jianye 4-1 at Pudong Football Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.85 xG and Henan Jianye 1.24 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.09 / defence 0.99 against Henan Jianye attack 0.91 / defence 0.96, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 51% | Draw 25% | Henan Jianye 25%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 76%, Henan Jianye 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 3.12 average — above their attacking norm. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.